MIdterm Report

     MIDTERM REPORT

Apparently State handled Open Date comfortably last weekend, and the staff and team are preparing for the first game of the second half of the season. Let's take a few minutes to appraise the 'Dogs' season to date. I'll begin with the obvious: If someone had told us that we'd be 4 - 2 after the first 6 games, I think we would've all taken it. MSU has won twice as many games in the first half of the season as they won the entire season last year. And while I'd really like to have had that win over Tennessee in that coulda/shoulda/woulda game, I'm sure that AZ State is saying the same thing about their game, when we had it, lost it, and came back on a miracle play to win it. 

Before I get into a little detail on what I think the Bulldogs have done well and not so well in the first 6 games, let's look at a few cold, hard facts comparing State at midterm vs. the final results from all of last season:

As you see, this year's team is on schedule to significantly improve over last year's team in offensive categories such as rushing yardage, points scored, sacks allowed, turnovers committed, 3rd down conversions, and turnovers committed. Likewise, to date the 2025 team is faring better defensively in yards allowed passing, rushing, and total and in points allowed, sacks, and 3rd down conversions allowed. Remembering that we are exactly halfway through the season and that all of our remaining games are conference games, 4 with nationally ranked teams, I think the record shows that this season's Bulldogs have indeed improved over last season. 

Trying to size up this year's opponents compared to last year's is tricky, but so far MSU has beaten a USM team that is unbeaten in their conference and has lost only 1 other game. The 'Dogs have also beaten 1 of the 3 nationally ranked teams we've played, and took another ranked team to OT before losing. Of our remaining 2025 opponents 4 are currently nationally ranked. By contrast, in 2024 State played 6 ranked teams, including 4 who played in the CFP playoffs, but the nonconference foes other than AZ State were also-rans. Neither schedule has been exactly loaded with cupcakes, especially the conference schedule. [Thanks, SEC! May we please have another?! Oh, wait ... that's right ... we will in 2026. 😨]

Some general -- and a few specific -- thoughts on State's reasons for optimism and pessimism as they move into the 2nd half of the season:

Offense

• Although the offensive line has struggled to protect Shapen, they have managed to run the ball more effectively than expected behind OT Albert Reese, who unfortunately has missed a couple of games with injuries. His return to "fighting fit" will likely determine whether Booth and Gayten (both of whom have been effective) can keep the ground game going until Fluff's hoped for return.
• Blake has been effective, particularly throwing the deep ball. He needs to be able to get rid of the ball quickly without turning it over, which will be determined largely by the coaching scheme and his protection (or lack thereof).
• Thompson and Evans have been good weapons at receiver. It would help if another receiver emerged as a solid 3rd option, and personally I believe it would be great if that could be TE  Traore. Williams and Mosley have flashed some potential.

Defense

• The defensive line hasn't been super, but they're much better than last year. I've been particularly impressed by the play of Dinkins, and others have made plays sporadically.
• The linebackers have improved. Zakari has had moments of excellence, and Lockhart has impressed as his opportunities have increased. Jennings, Gullette, and Mitchell have been steady, and Sylla and Smith have had their moments as well.
• The secondary has probably been the biggest surprise on the defensive side of the ball. Isaac Smith, of course, has been effective and will be missed until his return. Jones has begun reaching his potential, and Brumfield, Washington, Mitchell, and Manning have made some plays.

Special Teams

• Ferrie has been excellent when given good snaps, and he has also been a monster on kickoffs.
• Pulliam has been exceptional on punts.
• Although he hasn't been Tulu or Kevin Coleman, Evans has been a dangerous punt returner.

Lying in Wait

Awaiting our Bulldogs are those previously mentioned 4 nationally ranked (3 at home) and 2 unranked teams, the latter of whom we just happen to play on the road. If MSU is to reach the originally unthinkable ... then seemingly achievable ... and now questionable goal of a bowl game, they somehow have to beat at least 2 of those teams. The most likely potential victims have seemed for most of the season to have been Florida and Arkansas. However, both present problems (in addition to being road games): Do we get the Florida which lost to S. Florida and is again in "Fire Sunbelt Billy!" mode, or the Florida which manhandled Texas in The Swamp? Arkansas has already fired their coach, but they are a high scoring team with an outstanding dual threat QB (often our Kryptonite) which blew road games to TSUN and Memphis with late red zone fumbles, then played Tenn. to a virtual dead heat last weekend. I can't in good conscience say that I expect to win either of those road games. Perhaps better chances lie in home games with overrated (but apparently just waking up) Texas, erratic Georgia, or TSUN, which has tried valiantly to choke against Arky, Kentucky, and Washington State. And what to make of Mizzou?  Was their close loss to Bama just an inevitable loss after a series of wins over midirons, or did it prove they may actually be really good?

And what of our 'Dogs? Have injuries to key players conspired to bring us back to the reality many predicted for us, or are there more pleasant surprises in the tank? Can the defense continue to do enough to keep us in games, even after losing our best DL (Whitson) for the season and our best DB (Smith) for an undetermined length of time? Can they continue to do a serviceable job of stopping the run, especially in the red zone, and avoiding the long pass? Can they generate a pass rush? Offensively, can Booth, Gayten, and others keep the running game clicking? Will Fluff really be back this season; and if so, will he be full speed? Can we protect Blake enough for him to throw deep to Thompson, Evans, etc.? Will we find some creative ways to use Kamario? And finally, can our deep snapper consistently make good snaps so that Ferrie can continue to produce when called upon? Inquiring minds want to know these things ... and yet are a little nervous about finding out.

Right now Ouija tells me that we'll sneak up on someone -- but just one -- and won't quite reach the bowl threshold. I think our odds are better against the Piggies, but we may be just as likely to catch one of the big boys flat at Davis Wade on a day when we're clicking. With our proven ability to hit the deep ball, we have a puncher's chance. Frankly, I don't like our chances against the Gators this weekend. They are usually tough at The Swamp, and their defense can be really stout. (Ask Arch Who?!) We'll need Lagway to be stricken by a case of generosity/color-blindness compelling him to toss us the ball often (which he can sometimes do), but I just can't count on that. Their running game has at times looked potent, which can take pressure off him. Added to all of that is the uncertainty of whether key guys like Reese and Smith are available, and if so, if they are at or near full speed. To win, we'll need to get a lead early and have the Gator crowd turn on Sunbelt Billy and his team. (Unlikely, but a possibility; Gator fans are typically "all in" or "all out"!)

Let's keep our fingers crossed!  Hail, State!